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Technical Analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians 2nd

Technical Analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians 2nd. Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT

Đặt in tại HoaXanh. Sách bìa màu đóng gáy keo nhiệt.

  • 240,000đ
  • Mã sản phẩm: TEC084543
  • Tình trạng: 2

INTRODUCTION TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

2 THE BASIC PRINCIPLE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE TREND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

What Is a Trend? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

How Are Trends Identified? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Trends Develop from Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

What Trends Are There? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make? . . . . . . . . 17

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Review Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

HISTORY OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ......................................23

Early Financial Markets and Exchanges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Modern Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Current Advances in Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

4 THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CONTROVERSY ..........................33

Do Markets Follow a Random Walk? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Fat Tails ................................................................................................36

Drawdowns...........................................................................................37

Proportions of Scale . ...........................................................................39

Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

What About Market Efficiency?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

New Information...................................................................................42

Are Investors Rational? . ......................................................................46

Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium?.........................................47

Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis? . . . . . . . . . 52

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Review Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Part II: Markets and Market Indicators

5 AN OVERVIEW OF MARKETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57

In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used? . . . . 58

Types of Contracts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Cash Market

How Does a Market Work? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Who Are the Market Players?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

How Is the Market Measured? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Price-Weighted Average . .....................................................................70

Market Capitalization Weighted Average . ...........................................71

Equally Weighted (or Geometric) Average . .........................................72

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Review Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

6 DOW THEORY .......................................................................75

Dow Theory Theorems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

The Primary Trend. ..............................................................................80

The Secondary Trend ............................................................................81

The Minor Trend...................................................................................81

Concept of Confirmation . ....................................................................82

Importance of Volume. .........................................................................83

Criticisms of the Dow Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

Review Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

7 SENTIMENT............................................................................89

What Is Sentiment? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Market Players and Sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion . . . . . . . . . 95

How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured?. . . . . . . . . . . 96

Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility .........................97

Polls ....................................................................................................102

Other Measures of Contrary Opinion ................................................107

Unquantifiable Contrary Indicators ..................................................116

Historical Indicators .........................................................................117

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